Case Study
Past Performance
Foresight Framework · Strategy & Positioning
Mass Care Strategy — Mapping a 15+ County Wildfire Deployment Opportunity
Client: Off the Grid Services LLC  ·  Role: Prime  ·  Status: Completed
15+
High-risk WUI counties mapped with documented feeding gaps
ESF #6
Federal Mass Care alignment pathway developed
2
Federal pre-qualification pathways built (FEMA PA + BPA)
1
Market gap identified, documented, and positioned for entry
Foresight California / Oregon Strategy & Positioning Private Sector Mass Care · ESF #6 · Wildfire Recovery
The Situation

After a major wildfire, people need food — not for a day, but for weeks. Extended disaster feeding is one of the most difficult phases of disaster response: it starts after the immediate crisis, requires sustained logistics, and can't be easily managed by organizations that specialize in short-term deployments.

Red Cross and World Central Kitchen have both scaled back from extended deployments. California and Oregon had an uncovered window — a gap between what communities need in the weeks after a major wildfire and what existing providers were positioned to deliver. Off the Grid Services LLC had the operational capacity to fill that window. Mobile food service, existing supply chains, a deployable fleet. What they didn't have was a strategy: which counties to prioritize, how to qualify for federal reimbursement, or how to position as a legitimate emergency response provider rather than a vendor looking for business.

What We Did

TLR applied Foresight-style demand mapping to pinpoint where the gap was largest and where Off the Grid's model was best positioned to fill it. We analyzed wildfire risk data, population density, existing provider coverage, and historical deployment patterns across California and Oregon — identifying 15+ high-risk Wildland-Urban Interface counties where extended feeding needs were documented and provider coverage was insufficient or absent.

We then developed two federal pre-qualification pathways: FEMA Public Assistance (PA) eligibility, which is the primary reimbursement mechanism for mass care operations in Presidentially-declared disasters, and Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) structures, which allow pre-approved vendors to be activated quickly without a full procurement cycle during an emergency. Both pathways required mapping Off the Grid's existing operational capacity against FEMA's requirements — and identifying the gaps that would need to be addressed before qualification.

The entire strategy was aligned with ESF #6 — the Emergency Support Function covering Mass Care, Emergency Assistance, Temporary Housing, and Human Services. ESF #6 is where extended feeding operations live in the federal emergency framework. Operating inside it, rather than outside it, is the difference between a legitimate disaster response provider and a well-meaning vendor that can't get reimbursed.

"The gap was real. The demand was documented. What Off the Grid needed wasn't market research — it was a pathway through the federal system that nobody had mapped for them yet."
Engagement Details
ClientOff the Grid Services LLC
TLR RolePrime
SectorPrivate Sector
StatusCompleted
Frameworks Applied
PrimaryForesight
Key Numbers
WUI counties mapped15+ (CA + OR)
Fed pathwaysFEMA PA + BPA
ESF alignmentESF #6 Mass Care
Market gapDocumented + mapped
Context
Extended disaster feeding · Wildfire recovery · WUI communities · California + Oregon · FEMA PA reimbursement
What We Delivered
  • Demand mapping: 15+ high-risk WUI counties — identified by wildfire risk, population vulnerability, and provider coverage gaps across California and Oregon
  • FEMA Public Assistance pre-qualification pathway — requirements mapped against Off the Grid's operational capacity with gap analysis
  • FEMA BPA procurement pathway — pre-approval structure enabling rapid activation during declared emergencies
  • ESF #6 alignment strategy — positioning Off the Grid as a Mass Care provider within the federal emergency response framework
  • Market entry positioning — documented basis for engaging county emergency management and state OES as an extended recovery feeding provider
What Changed

Off the Grid evolved from a catering company with disaster deployment interest to a company with a documented strategy, a prioritized target market, and two federal qualification pathways. The demand mapping gave them the business case — not based on optimism, but on documented gaps in existing provider coverage. The pre-qualification pathways gave them the regulatory roadmap.

The ESF #6 alignment positioned Off the Grid as a legitimate emergency response provider — with the vocabulary, the federal framework awareness, and the reimbursement pathway that emergency management professionals need to see before they can bring in a private-sector partner during a disaster. That's what Foresight does: it turns a gap you can see into a position you can defend.

Foresight Framework · Applied
The gap between what will be needed and what currently exists is a planning problem — and a positioning opportunity.

TLR's Foresight framework answers the question nobody asks before a disaster: what will the event demand, and can the system meet it? In California's extended feeding gap, the demand was documented and the supply was demonstrably insufficient — two major providers had pulled back from the deployment type that's most needed in wildfire recovery. TLR applied demand modeling across 15+ counties to identify where the gap was widest, quantify what extended recovery feeding actually requires, and map the federal mechanisms that make reimbursement possible. The result isn't a market study. It's an operational position built on a demand model — the kind of foundation that turns an idea into something you can walk into an emergency management office and propose.

← All Case Studies